Both once the CBOE future expired and from now on, in the event the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there was clearly an amazing decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would guess that these are covered with a single liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is most probably short the future and perhaps long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if the price is low where you can border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes that are easy to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a young using a very small volume most of the time.
CME’s model is better, but nonetheless not very good, VWAP for the four major exchanges a very good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the amount on this type of brief span of time is extremely limited. Regardless if many large participants might have interests in a of such settlement processes they’d almost certainly have the same position and advantages of exactly the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is we likely will discover a lot of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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