Both if the CBOE future expired and today, if the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there were a substantial decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a good low volume i would guess that they may be dominated by one liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is most likely short the longer term and maybe long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if your price is low and also have a border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which might be all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a young using a really small volume usually.
CME’s model is better, but still of low quality, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on this kind of brief span of time is very limited. Even though many large participants would have interests in different of the settlement processes they’d almost certainly have the same position and advantages from exactly the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over a long time instead). In conclusion is that we likely will discover a lot of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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